Vegas week: we’re heading to the Bellagio…

The Bell

Last Thursday, a stock crash changed traders’ minds about the Fed.

The odds of a December rate hike fell from about 83% to about 70% in a single day, per CME FedWatch, with no new inflation data behind the change.

On Tuesday at 8:30 a.m., the data gets its say. October’s inflation report is the last one the Fed sees before it decides on Dec. 9. November’s report arrives Dec. 10, the day after.

It’s also Vegas week for us. More on that below.

Here is your map.

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The One That Matters

Tuesday, November 10, 8:30 a.m. The government reports how much prices rose in October.

The month the Fed will be judging

In September, prices rose 3.7% from a year earlier and 0.6% in a single month. Strip out food and energy, and they still rose 0.3% for a second straight month.

Forecasts for October run from about 0.2% to 0.3% a month, for both the headline number and the core number that leaves out food and energy.

Here’s the part most headlines will skip. Tuesday’s report covers October, when Brent crude spent most of the month above $110. Oil fell about 12% last week, and none of that shows up until November’s report, the one that lands after the Fed decides.

Watch the monthly number

One more wrinkle. Last fall’s government shutdown means the government never collected October 2025 prices, so the usual year-over-year comparison is missing or estimated. Expect different “annual” figures in different headlines.

The monthly core reading is the cleaner one, and it’s the one the Fed has been reacting to. As JPMorgan’s Michael Feroli pointed out, the Fed raised rates in September after a 0.2% monthly core reading, then held in October with a 0.3% on the way.

A 0.3% puts December firmly back in play. A 0.2% gives Thursday’s bet something to stand on.

Wholesale prices follow on Friday at 8:30 a.m. In September, they were up 6.3% from a year earlier.

Vegas Week

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A front-row seat to a high-stakes investing event, delivered to your inbox.

The event is run by Decentralized Masters, the investing community of 4,500+ members behind Future Finance, gathered at the Bellagio in Las Vegas. Its centerpiece, Ocean’s DM, puts members in teams as investment committees, each running a simulated $10 million portfolio through four different versions of 2027, boom, bust, and everything in between.

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The Earnings Ahead

A lighter week for earnings, with three reports that test last Thursday’s AI selloff. Here’s who reports, and when.

Tuesday, November 10

• CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV): after the close

Thursday, November 12

• Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO): after the close
• Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT): after the close

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) reports the following Tuesday, November 17, after the close.

On the Horizon

Congress returns Monday, and the inflation report lands Tuesday. After that, here’s the one thing to focus on.

Thursday: the 30-year bond sale

On Thursday, the Treasury sells $25 billion of 30-year bonds. It’s the first big test of demand for long-term U.S. debt since the election.

It’s also the first since the Treasury dropped two words from its promise on how much it plans to sell. That change gives it room to sell fewer long bonds next year.

If buyers show up, long-term rates have a reason to ease. If they ask to be paid more, the rates that mortgages and business loans are priced off tend to climb with them.

Tan Gera named this sale as his next test.

Final Thought

The Fed will make its December call on numbers that are already old by the time it meets.

Tuesday’s report covers a month when oil was expensive. The cheaper oil traders are watching now won’t show up in the data until the day after the decision.

So for a few weeks, the Fed and the market will be looking at two different months.

That mismatch is worth keeping in mind when Tuesday’s headline lands.

See you tomorrow.

- Rami Al-Sabeq

Editor in Chief | Future Finance

Disclaimer: This content is not financial advice, it is for informational purposes only. All investments involve inherent risk. Any financial decisions you make are solely your responsibility.