Wednesday’s the most important day of the quarter

📊  Today’s Big Picture

This Wednesday will be the single most important trading day of the quarter.

• At 2:00 PM ET, the Federal Reserve releases the minutes from its April meeting.
• At 5:00 PM ET, NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) reports Q1 earnings.

The FOMC minutes will show the internal split at the most divided Fed meeting since October 1992.

The NVIDIA call will tell us whether the entire AI capex cycle is still intact.

And here’s the surprise sitting underneath all of it.

Kevin Warsh is not yet officially the Fed Chair.

The Federal Reserve Board on Friday named Jerome Powell as Chair pro tempore until Warsh is sworn in.

Under Fed Board policy, that designation cannot last more than one month.

Markets are pricing a 6% probability the S&P 500 (INDEX: SP500) closes up today.

Brent is at $110. Bitcoin (BTC) broke below $77,000 over the weekend.

By the end of this issue, you’ll know what to watch, what to ignore, and what to be positioned for.

🔍  Signal vs. Noise

What Actually Happened Over The Weekend

On Sunday night, three drones approached the Barakah nuclear power plant in the United Arab Emirates.

Two were intercepted. One struck an electrical generator outside the inner perimeter.

There were no injuries. There was no radiological release.

The International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed normal radiation levels.

The UAE Foreign Minister called it a “treacherous terrorist attack” and declined to formally attribute it.

By Monday pre-market, Brent crude was at $111.19, up 1.77%.

S&P 500 futures were down 0.64%. Dow futures down 0.85%.

Bitcoin sold off below $77,000, triggering $657.9 million in liquidations.

The Polymarket implied probability of the S&P closing up today is 6%.

That is not a normal Monday tape.

Three Headlines, Three Realities

1. The first headline this morning is that Warsh is now Fed Chair.

• In reality: Warsh is not yet sworn in.

The Federal Reserve Board press release on Friday May 15 named Powell as “Chair pro tempore” pending Warsh’s swearing-in.

That swearing-in is still waiting on final White House paperwork.

Trump wanted a clean Saturday handoff. He got administrative limbo.

2. The second headline is that the inflation scare is over.

• What the math says: Brent is at $110.

CME FedWatch shows roughly 40% odds of a rate hike by December.

That number was under 10% one month ago.

The bond market is no longer pricing cuts. It is pricing the opposite.

3. The third headline is that NVIDIA is set up to beat.

• What the math says: NVIDIA has beaten revenue by 3-4% for six consecutive quarters.

The stock has fallen on four of its last five earnings prints.

Q2 consensus is already at $86 billion. A guide below that line, no matter how strong Q1 is, reads as a deceleration.

Wall Street is grading on a curve set by the bond market.

And the bond market just raised the curve.

The 63.9% Problem

Foreign central banks took 63.9% of last Wednesday's 30-year auction. The previous auction, they took 65.2%. The one before that, 68%.

The investors who fund American debt are reducing their bid one auction at a time.

That is the signal the institutional world watches before the headlines arrive. The same signal the CFA Charterholder behind the framework now used by 4,000 investors flagged on Wednesday.

Tomorrow's 20-year auction tells us whether the trend is holding or accelerating.

If you hold U.S. retirement assets in dollars, every percentage point foreign buyers walk away from is a percentage point of risk landing on your portfolio.

See the framework →

📰  From Around the Market

Every issue, we bring you the most important stories from around the world and show you why they matter. Think of this as your shortcut through the noise - one click per story, and you’re caught up.

A drone strike at the UAE’s only nuclear plant.

On Sunday night, three drones approached the Barakah nuclear power plant in the United Arab Emirates.

Two were intercepted. One struck an electrical generator outside the inner perimeter.

There were no injuries and no radiological release.

The IAEA confirmed normal radiation levels at the plant.

The UAE Foreign Minister called it a “treacherous terrorist attack” but has not formally attributed it.

Brent jumped $2 on the news.

Stephen Miran resigned from the Fed Board.

Stephen Miran, the FOMC’s lone consistent dove, submitted his resignation on May 14.

His departure becomes effective when Warsh is sworn in.

Miran dissented at every meeting since joining in September 2025. He was the only member of the Committee arguing for rate cuts at the April meeting.

His seat is being filled by Kevin Warsh, who has argued the opposite.

The FOMC loses its only dovish vote at the exact moment it gains a hawkish chair.

The 30-year Treasury just printed above 5% at auction.

Last Wednesday, the Treasury auctioned $25 billion in 30-year bonds.

They cleared at 5.046%. The first 30-year auction above 5% since August 2007.

Indirect bidders, mostly foreign central banks, took 63.9%. That is down from 65.2% the previous auction.

Tomorrow at 1:00 PM ET, the Treasury auctions $16 billion in 20-year bonds.

If that one tails, the bond market reset started Wednesday picks up speed.

👀  What to Watch For

Tuesday May 19 at 9:00 AM ET. Home Depot earnings.

Home Depot (NYSE: HD) reports Q1 before the open.

Consensus: $3.41 EPS on $41.5 billion revenue.

The Pro segment versus DIY split is the cleanest housing tea-leaf of the week.

A Pro miss means contractors are not buying materials. That is a direct read on new construction.

Tuesday May 19 at 1:00 PM ET. The 20-Year Bond auction.

The Treasury auctions $16 billion in 20-year bonds.

The 20-year is the most fragile point on the yield curve.

A clean auction stabilizes the bond market into Wednesday. A tail triggers a second-stage yield move.

The April 20-year cleared at 4.88%. Friday’s 30-year cleared at 5.05%.

Wherever this one clears tells us where the long end lives this summer.

Wednesday May 20 at 2:00 PM ET. The April FOMC Minutes.

The Federal Reserve releases the minutes from its April 28-29 meeting.

That meeting produced the most dissents at a single FOMC since October 1992. Eight votes to four.

Three hawks dissented against the easing-bias language. One dove dissented for a cut.

The minutes will show whose arguments carried and whose did not.

This is the last meeting Powell chaired.

💭  Today’s Final Thought

At 1:00 PM ET tomorrow, the U.S. Treasury will auction $16 billion in 20-year bonds.

At 1:01 PM ET, the result will be public.

Inside that one minute, the bond market will tell every institutional desk on earth what to do for the next quarter.

If foreign demand holds, the reset that started last Wednesday slows down.

If foreign demand falls, it accelerates.

• The equity market will react Tuesday afternoon.
• Wednesday afternoon, the April Fed minutes will tell us whether the committee saw it coming.
• The headlines will arrive Thursday morning.
• The retail investor will react when their next 401(k) statement arrives.

The investors who position before 1:01 PM tomorrow are the only ones who get to choose which side they were on.

- Rami Al-Sabeq (Editor in Chief | Future Finance)

About Future Finance

Future Finance is written by Rami Al-Sabeq, Editor-in-Chief, and his research team. His macro-to-crypto work has been featured in Unchained and Cryptonary, and his independent essays appear at RamiWrites.Substack.com.

Behind every issue sits Head of Research Tyler Hubbard, whose track record across 590+ digital asset picks has produced an 85% directional accuracy rate and a 426% average peak return. That’s as of the third-party audit measuring performance through April 30th, 2026. Follow him on TradingView here.