2 events in the next 140 minutes will define Q2.

📊  Today’s Big Picture

You are reading this at the single most consequential minute of the quarter.

The April Fed minutes are being published right now.

Tonight at 4:20 PM ET, NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) reports Q1 earnings.

Two consequential signals. Just 140 minutes apart. One inbox.

• The Federal Reserve is speaking now.
• NVIDIA speaks at 4:20 PM ET.

Any moment now, the minutes will start moving the bond market. By the time you finish dinner, NVIDIA will have either confirmed or ended the AI capex cycle.

Brent is at $107. Bitcoin (BTC) is at $77,490. The S&P has now closed lower in the past two out of three sessions.

By the end of this issue, you’ll know what to watch, what to ignore, and what to be positioned for.

🔍  Signal vs. Noise

Three Headlines, Three Realities

1. The first headline this afternoon is that the Fed has paused.

• What the math says: CME FedWatch shows roughly 99% probability of a June hold.

That number was 95.9% on May 6 and 97.7% on May 11.

The bond market is no longer pricing the next cut. It is pricing whether a hike is on the table.

Ed Yardeni now forecasts a July hike.

A pause priced at 99% is a market with one ear cocked toward something else.

The minutes publishing right now will tell us whether the committee sees the same risk the bond market is already pricing.

2. The second headline is that oil is rolling over.

• What the math says: Brent fell 1.5% yesterday after Trump called off a scheduled strike on Iran.

The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since February 28.

The International Energy Agency counts 14.4 million barrels of daily Gulf supply still shut in.

A one-day pullback in crude is not a trend. It is a pause.

Gasoline at the pump is $4.47 a gallon. Up 60% year-to-date.

3. The third headline is that NVIDIA is set up to beat.

• What the math says: NVIDIA has beaten revenue by 3-4% for six consecutive quarters.

The stock has fallen on four of its last five earnings prints.

Q2 whispers are at $90 billion. Consensus is at $86 billion.

Anything below $85 billion triggers a sell-the-news response no matter how strong Q1 is.

The Q1 number is not the story tonight.

The Q2 guide is.

0.5% in. 6.5% out.

That's what your bank pays you, and what it lends your money out at.

While the Fed argues 8 to 4 about rates today, that spread doesn't move.

Twice a week, the DeFi Doctor sends a briefing on the parallel system that pays the lending side directly. Where real yield exists. Which platforms are safe to deploy on. What's changing before you move capital.

Early access closes when it opens to the public.

See what's inside →

📰  From Around the Market

Every issue, we bring you the most important stories from around the world and show you why they matter. Think of this as your shortcut through the noise - one click per story, and you’re caught up.

Home Depot beat earnings while traffic shrank.

Home Depot (NYSE: HD) reported Q1 yesterday morning.

Revenue came in at $41.77 billion, beating consensus by roughly $250 million.

Earnings per share landed at $3.43 on consensus of $3.41.

But customer transactions fell 1.3%.

Same-store sales grew 0.6%. The growth came entirely from average ticket size, up 2.3% to $92.76.

In plain English, fewer customers spent more per visit. That is sticker shock, not demand.

CEO Ted Decker said the underlying demand was “relatively similar to what we saw throughout fiscal 2025”.

Walmart reports tomorrow before the open. Same question.

Trump called off a strike on Iran yesterday morning.

President Trump announced on Tuesday morning that he had called off a scheduled attack on Iran.

The decision followed appeals from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.

Brent crude fell 1.5% on the news. WTI fell 1.4%.

Mizuho’s Robert Yaw told the press: “the war in Iran is turning into yet another forever war.”

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. The IEA counts 14.4 million barrels per day of Gulf supply still shut in.

Gasoline at the pump is $4.47 a gallon. Up 60% year-to-date.

Warsh gets sworn in Friday at the White House.

Kevin Warsh will be sworn in as the 17th Chair of the Federal Reserve on Friday morning.

The ceremony will take place at the White House. President Trump will administer the oath.

Stephen Miran’s resignation becomes effective the same moment.

The FOMC loses its only dovish vote. Warsh’s first meeting as Chair is June 16-17.

Powell remains on the Board of Governors through January 2028.

The first Fed Chair to stay on the board after stepping down since Eccles in 1948.

👀  What to Watch For

Tonight at 4:20 PM ET. NVIDIA earnings.

NVIDIA reports Q1 FY2027 after the close.

Press release at 4:20 PM ET. Conference call at 5:00 PM ET.

Wall Street consensus: $78.8 billion revenue, $1.77 EPS.

The implied move in the options market is 5 to 10 percent.

The single most-watched line on the page is the Q2 guide.

Anything below $85 billion triggers a sell-the-news response.

Tomorrow at 8:00 AM ET. Walmart earnings.

Walmart (NASDAQ: WMT) reports Q1 FY27 before the open.

Consensus: $0.65 EPS on $174 billion in revenue.

Comparable sales expected around 3.9%.

Home Depot showed traffic falling. Walmart is the low-income consumer read-through.

If Walmart traffic also falls, the consumer story is breaking.

Tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET. Initial jobless claims.

The Department of Labor releases weekly initial claims.

Claims have been rising steadily since March.

A print above 240,000 would be the highest of the year.

💭  Today’s Final Thought

Two signals land between 2 PM and 4:20 PM ET.

1. The April Fed minutes tell us what eight committee members were arguing about on April 29.
2. NVIDIA tonight tells us whether the AI capex cycle still has fuel.

By the time the headlines arrive Thursday morning, every institutional desk in the world will have already traded on both.

The retail investor will see the moves in the next 401(k) statement.

The two hours and twenty minutes between 2 PM and 4:20 PM ET today decide which side of those trades you are on.

The minutes are publishing as you read this. NVIDIA reports while you eat dinner. The portfolios responding to both were positioned last week.

- Rami Al-Sabeq (Editor in Chief | Future Finance)

About Future Finance

Future Finance is written by Rami Al-Sabeq, Editor-in-Chief, and his research team. His macro-to-crypto work has been featured in Unchained and Cryptonary, and his independent essays appear at RamiWrites.Substack.com.

Behind every issue sits Head of Research Tyler Hubbard, whose track record across 590+ digital asset picks has produced an 85% directional accuracy rate and a 426% average peak return. That’s as of the third-party audit measuring performance through April 30th, 2026. Follow him on TradingView here.